Varcoe: Smith to speak 'power, power and power' with Trudeau this week — together with the way forward for LNG

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Premier Danielle Smith expects to satisfy face-to-face with Justin Trudeau on Friday when the prime minister travels to Calgary for Stampede, and power points can be excessive on the agenda.

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Whereas the province has been girding for a showdown with Ottawa over a net-zero energy grid and an oilpatch emissions cap, the premier is pointing to an space the place they’ll discover frequent floor: LNG.

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And he or she could have an ally within the debate — different premiers from Western Canada.

“I’ve a sit-down with (the prime minister). His folks stated I can have three matters. I stated, ‘OK — power, power and power,” Smith advised a Calgary Chamber of Commerce luncheon final week.

Smith stated there was a “very constructive dialog” on power on the latest western premiers assembly in B.C. “B.C. Premier David Eby may be very eager to work with us to see if there’s a method that we will get international credit score for decreasing emissions in Japan, South Korea or India or China.”

Final week on the assembly in Whistler, B.C., the provincial and territorial leaders issued a joint assertion, which careworn Canada has an vital function to play in international power safety, comparable to supplying oil and fuel to different international locations.

Exporting low or zero-emitting LNG — together with hydrogen and hydro — may help cut back international greenhouse fuel emissions, the communique states.

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“Premiers renew their name on the federal authorities to assist emission credit score buying and selling throughout worldwide borders and work with provinces and territories to finalize the principles below Article 6 (of the Paris settlement) to make sure they obtain credit score for reductions ensuing from actions of their jurisdictions.”

Article 6 has develop into a key challenge for Alberta and LNG proponents, because it might see western Canadian pure fuel exported to different international locations and, if the product supplants higher-emitting sources comparable to coal, obtain credit score for it.

The Trudeau authorities has set out an formidable goal to scale back oilpatch emissions by 42 per cent by 2030, whereas the B.C. authorities’s personal local weather plan goals to curb its emissions by 40 per cent by the tip of this decade.

The buying and selling mechanism might present Canada — and B.C. — with a tangible method to attain these objectives whereas additionally rising fuel output and bringing new LNG tasks on-line.

“They (Ottawa) now perceive that in speaking about carbon seize utilization and storage, and hydrogen, and exporting LNG and getting credit score for it by way of the Paris accord, these are the issues the place I feel that we are going to discover plenty of frequent trigger,” Smith advised the chamber.

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Stewart Muir of the Useful resource Works Society, a Vancouver-based group that advocates for pure useful resource growth, stated he was “floored” by the unified assertion from the western premiers on LNG and Article 6, saying it represents a step ahead.

In March, the B.C. authorities unveiled a brand new power framework that mandates all proposed LNG developments should go an emissions take a look at and have a reputable net-zero plan by 2030. Muir stated it seems B.C.’s premier is continuous to melt his stance on LNG.

“It nearly appears like there’s a subtext to this . . . All the (premiers) from the West are saying the identical factor — ‘We’re unified on it. Hey, prime minister, if you wish to be part of us on this, be our visitor.’”

The way forward for LNG has been a focus for Alberta because the province hopes to see extra tasks constructed to ship super-chilled liquefied pure fuel from West Coast amenities to clients in Asia.

Nevertheless, environmental teams oppose a serious enlargement, with Clear Vitality Canada saying final month that continued development of LNG “is a wager that the world received’t obtain web zero.”

The prolific Montney formation, in Alberta and northeast British Columbia, produced just below half of all Canadian fuel final yr and it might considerably improve output.

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Canada has two liquefied pure fuel tasks transferring forward, the Shell-backed LNG Canada growth at Kitimat and the Woodfibre LNG initiative close to Squamish, B.C. A closing funding resolution can also be anticipated later this yr on the proposed Cedar LNG venture.

Funding selections by LNG venture proponents can be made “primarily based on their capacity to adjust to federal and provincial regulatory requirements and be aggressive throughout the international market,” Keean Nembhard, press secretary for federal Pure Assets Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, stated in a press release.

New LNG tasks would wish to show they’re displacing higher-emitting power sources, he stated.

If all the LNG tasks now on the desk go forward, it might signify a discount in international emissions of 89 megatonnes by displacing using coal and diesel, Smith stated.

And what impact will Canada’s dedication to succeed in net-zero emissions have on provincial aspirations?

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A report issued by the Canada Vitality Regulator final month projected that below a worldwide net-zero state of affairs, LNG exports from the nation would ramp as much as two billion cubic ft per day per day by the tip of this decade — from the LNG Canada and Woodfibre amenities — however not improve past that, earlier than starting to say no in 2045.

In a mid-range state of affairs the place Canada reached web zero by 2050 however different international locations lag behind, a second section of the LNG Canada venture would proceed and complete exports would improve to three.8 bcf a day in 2030 and keep there by way of 2050.

Beneath current insurance policies, Canadian LNG exports would rise to 4.6 bcf in 2034 and stay at that degree by way of 2050.

Any plan to extend LNG would require the provincial and federal governments to see eye to eye on the long run advantages of such exports, and work collectively to make it occur expeditiously.

A Stampede gathering looks like a very good place to start out.

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

[email protected]

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