Opinion: Alberta’s electrical energy sector faces distinctive mixture of challenges

Article content material

Over the approaching many years, Alberta’s electrical energy sector faces a triple problem. Every certainly one of these challenges is formidable alone. Taken collectively, they may appear insurmountable however for the very fact we reside in a province well-known for its ingenuity in the case of power options.

Article content material

Alberta’s first problem is to considerably enhance the quantity of electrical energy it generates. Throughout the nation, demand is predicted to rise over the approaching many years as extra of business, transportation, buildings and houses are electrified. Consultants estimate that by 2050 Canada would require a rise in provide between 62 per cent and 210 per cent. This implies considerably extra technology must be introduced on-line and in a comparatively brief timeframe.

Article content material

Though 2050 could appear distant, it may take many years to plan, approve, allow, finance and assemble new services — and the size of what is going to be wanted to satisfy elevated demand is gigantic.

This brings us to the second problem. The sources of latest technology should look completely different than what’s in place at the moment. Traditionally, Alberta has used low-cost, dependable fossil fuels to supply energy. However the province’s dedication to succeed in web zero emissions by 2050 signifies that new sources of energy technology can’t simply copy the template of earlier success.

Whereas Alberta leads the nation within the development of wind and photo voltaic tasks, the solar doesn’t all the time shine and the wind doesn’t all the time blow. In 2022, for instance, Alberta’s wind and photo voltaic services had been able to producing 26 per cent of what we wanted, however ended up producing simply 14 per cent. Including extra intermittent renewables would require further measures to make sure reliability for the grid — and there aren’t any straightforward options.

Article content material

Article content material

The third problem additionally pertains to GHG emissions — on this case, the necessity to re-tool present energy technology sources to turn out to be net-zero. In 2022, about 82 per cent of Alberta’s energy got here from pure fuel or coal. There was an enormous shift away from coal to lower-emissions pure fuel within the province, and Alberta might be off coal fully by the tip of 2023. However pure fuel nonetheless produces GHG emissions.

The federal authorities’s proposed Clear Electrical energy Rules would require electrical energy manufacturing throughout all of Canada to be web zero by 2035. There are more likely to be some exemptions — equivalent to for services that had been commissioned earlier than 2025. However most provinces are involved that the timeline shouldn’t be technologically possible. On the annual premiers’ convention earlier this month, the premiers issued an announcement that “expressed concern that the federal Clear Electrical energy Rules are unattainable and unaffordable for some jurisdictions given present applied sciences and timelines.”

The electrical energy system is completely different in each province, as described in a latest report by the Canada West Basis. In consequence, every province has a distinct set of challenges. In B.C., for instance, which has traditionally relied on main dams for hydropower, the dilemma revolves round enhance provide with out constructing new dams, and whether or not to make use of some or all of its profitable power exports — the vast majority of which at present go to the U.S. — to fulfill elevated home demand, which might enhance charges for B.C. clients.

Article content material

However Alberta additionally has a singular benefit. Alone among the many Western provinces it has a deregulated market with substantial non-public sector participation. This supplies an excellent surroundings for innovation as adjustments can happen flexibly as corporations react to market situations and search for new aggressive benefits.

The dimensions of the transition wanted is gigantic and is more likely to have large value implications for Alberta and all different provinces. There’s quite a lot of uncertainty round how a lot demand will enhance, what the timeline of transition must be, and round what know-how and commerce alternate options characterize the perfect combine for producing electrical energy sooner or later.

The one certainty is that Alberta’s electrical energy future will look considerably completely different than its previous.

Gary Mar is president and CEO of the Canada West Basis. Marla Orenstein is director of the Pure Sources Centre on the Canada West Basis.

Article content material