Breakenridge: Alberta can, and may, lead on vitality transition

Article content material

After Albertans had been warned that the federal Simply Transition laws would “remove 2.7 million jobs” and “shut down our vitality trade,” it seems that the precise invoice (Invoice C-50, the Sustainable Jobs Act) doesn’t do something of the type. Frankly, contemplating the alarmist rhetoric that preceded the introduction of the invoice, C-50 itself is considerably of a nothingburger.

Article content material

To make certain, there will likely be panels and stories and proposals relating to employee transition to a clear vitality financial system, and it’s attainable that some sort of ill-conceived and damaging insurance policies might circulation from that. Thoughts you, the feds are completely able to developing with ill-conceived and damaging insurance policies on their very own.

Article content material

There’s a world of distinction between a compelled transition of the oil and fuel workforce to so-called inexperienced vitality jobs and an try to arrange us for a transition that’s coming sooner or later ultimately. There’s nonetheless a deep-rooted suspicion right here in Alberta that the feds harbour a want to execute the previous, however we have to acknowledge the necessity to embrace some model of the latter.

Whereas Invoice C-50 is nowhere close to as scary as was marketed, final week’s report from the Canadian Power Regulator (CER) paints a scary image of what the way forward for the vitality sector may appear like.

It’s exhausting to know simply how easy the worldwide path to internet zero will likely be, however the steps taken by different international locations may have a huge impact on Canada, no matter what Ottawa does or doesn’t do.

Article content material

Article content material

For instance, ought to the world achieve reaching its 2050 local weather targets, world fossil gas demand might fall by 65 per cent, spurring a collapse in world oil costs and a 76 per cent drop in Canadian oil manufacturing.

The opposite eventualities modelled aren’t fairly as dramatic, and the CER definitely isn’t making any prediction as to that are probably. The purpose is to acknowledge what might occur. From our perspective, then, it’s wise to have a look at not solely how we’d reply to such circumstances but additionally how we would attempt to capitalize.

That’s to not say we should always belief within the knowledge of any present or federal authorities or assume that Invoice C-50 will present a path ahead. Nor ought to we count on that the dramatic and costly overtures to corporations like Volkswagen and Stellantis will likely be deployed in Alberta’s favour.

However we’re not fully on the mercy of Ottawa or — extra to the purpose — of the remainder of the world. It’s essential that Alberta proceed to fulfill brief and medium oil and fuel demand each domestically and overseas. Specifically, LNG exports can present environmental worth by displacing coal use (one thing Alberta and Ottawa seem to agree on).

Article content material

The premier’s insistence that Alberta be represented on no matter council that’s created by Invoice C-50 is solely cheap – a refusal of that request would merely illustrate that the feds aren’t appearing in good religion.

Past that, there’s overlap and alignment between Alberta and Ottawa over hydrogen growth and even — roughly — on carbon seize utilization and storage (CCUS) expertise. And in the case of funding in renewable vitality, Alberta is already a pacesetter.

A current report from the Canadian Renewable Power Affiliation reveals that greater than three-quarters of the 1.8 gigawatts of recent photo voltaic and wind era capability added final yr was from proper right here in Alberta.

A lot of this course of entails constructing on what we’re already doing. If we occur to seek out ourselves in a situation the place the tempo of the worldwide transition results in job losses in Alberta’s oil and fuel sector, then we’ll be significantly better off if we helped form the contingency plans for helping and supporting these staff.

Alberta could face existential threats, however Invoice C-50 doesn’t must be one. If we’re good, we are able to flip this to our benefit.

 “Afternoons with Rob Breakenridge” airs weekdays 12:30-3 p.m. on QR Calgary and a couple of – 3 p.m. on 630CHED    [email protected]  Twitter: @RobBreakenridge

Article content material